STARS: The Space Transportation Architecture Risk System

Because of the need to perform comparisons between transportation systems that are likely to have significantly different levels of risk, both because of differing degrees of freedom in achieving desired performance levels and their different states of development and utilization, an approach has been developed for performing early comparisons of transportation architectures explicitly taking into account quantitative measures of uncertainty and resulting risk. The approach considers the uncertainty associated with the achievement of technology goals, the effect that the achieved level of technology will have on transportation system performance and the relationship between transportation system performance/capability and the ability to accommodate variations in payload mass. The consequences of system performance are developed in terms of expected values and associated standard deviations of nonrecurring, recurring and the present value of transportation system life cycle cost. Typical results are presented to illustrate the application of the methodology.