Probabilities for the peak flux and fluence of energetic solar protons incident on interplanetary spacecraft

Energetic protons injected into interplanetary space in solar particle events can interfere with spacecraft operations and experiments and can cause permanent degradation of some components. For future long term interplanetary and planetary missions, techniques were developed which use solar particle event data from 1956 through 1970 to predict the probability of exceeding any value of peak proton intensity or mission proton fluence. Dependences on proton energy (near 10 to 100 MeV), heliocentric distance, and phase of the solar cycle are included. The techniques are described and applied to the Mariner Jupiter/Saturn 1977 mission.