Long-term dynamical stability and transition in a spectral model

The relationship between blocking and multiple equilibria was investigated in a two layer model of the Northern Hemisphere January heating and boundary conditions are imposed. The truncation varies over global wavenumbers 4-8 and the coefficients of horizontal diffusion of heat and potential vorticity are varied about realistic values. It is shown that while severely truncated models can exhibit multiple quasi equilibria under realistic domain, forcing, and boundary conditions, higher resolution is required to allow realistic transitions to be mediated by strong baroclinic wave activity. It is indicated that for extended range forecasting blocking transitions are not likely to be forecast well unless the associated synoptic events can be forecasted statistically.