Modelling Solar Spectral Irradiance Variations at Ultraviolet Wavelengths

Solar UV irradiance variations with solar activity are examined using a three component model of the CaII K chromospheric emission. This model, developed from ground based observations of the location, area and relative intensity of CaII K plage, in conjunction with measurements throughout solar cycle 21 of the full disc CaII K emission, includes the contributions to the ultraviolet flux from both plage and active network emission. The model successfully replicates changes in the Lyman alpha flux related to the 27 day rotation of solar plage, outbreaks (or rounds) of activity over periods of a year or more, and the growth and accumulation of active regions over the eleven year solar activity cycles. Estimates of the magnitude of the solar cycle variability of the UV emission between 200 and 300 nm are presented but cannot currently be verified by available observations.