System reliability and risk assessment task goals and status

The major focus for continued development of the Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) codes is in support of system testing and certification of advanced propulsion systems. Propulsion system testing has evolved over the years from tests designed to show success, to tests designed to reveal reliability issues before service use. Such test conditions as performance envelope corners, high rotor imbalance, power dwells, and overspeed tests are designed to shake out problems that can be associated with low and high cycle fatigue, creep, and stress rupture, bearing durability, and the like. Subsystem testing supports system certification by standing as an early evaluation of the same durability and reliability concerns as for the entire system. The NESSUS software system is being further developed to support the definition of rigorous subsystem and system test definition and reliability certification. The principal technical issues are outlined which are related to system reliability, including key technology issues such as failure mode synergism, sequential failure mechanisms, and fault tree definition.