A look into the crystal ball: The next 25 years

The PTTI Planning Meeting was born at about the same time as the atomic definition of the unit of time, the second. This use of the cesium resonance was made possible by advances in quantum electronics during the preceding decade which resulted in commercial availability of cesium, rubidium, and hydrogen clocks and frequency standards. Twenty-five years later these types of clocks still are the backbone of time and frequency applications; together with a variety of crystal oscillators, transmitters, and receivers, as well as signal distribution, conditioning and switching systems, atomic clocks are an essential part of the infrastructure of modern navigation and communication technology. The next 25 years undoubtedly will see a pervasive expansion of PTTI into the infrastructure that supports and leverages industrial, social, environmental, defense, and even individual human activities. Speculation as to what capabilities, services, and personal conveniences may become available will be limited by two factors: the degree to which existing device concepts can be made more affordable and reliable, and the ability to miniaturize for purposes of compatibility with electronic integration. With regard to the latter, history teaches us that the required technological breakthrough is unlikely to originate in existing technology; thus, we may expect a paradigm shift in PTTI device concepts not unlike the shift in the 1960s from vacuum tubes to semiconductors.