Spacecraft Orbital Debris Reentry: Aerothermal Analysis

In the past 40 years, thousands of objects have been placed in Earth orbit and are being tracked. Space hardware reentry survivability must be evaluated to assess risks to human life and property on the ground. The objective of this paper is to present results of a study to determine altitude of demise (burn-up) or survivability of reentering objects. Two NASA/JSC computer codes - Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool (ORSAT) and Miniature ORSAT (MORSAT) were used to determine trajectories, aerodynamic aerothermal environment, and thermal response of selected spacecraft components. The methodology of the two codes is presented, along with results of a parametric study of reentering objects modeled as spheres and cylinders. Parameters varied included mass, diameter, wall thickness, ballistic coefficient, length, type of material, and mode of tumbling/spinning. Two fragments of a spent Delta second stage undergoing orbital decay, stainless steel cylindrical propellant tank and titanium pressurization sphere, were evaluated with ORSAT and found to survive entry, as did the actual objects. Also, orbital decay reentry predictions of the Japanese Advanced Earth Observing Satellite (ADEOS) aluminum and nickel box-type components and the Russian COSMOS 954 satellite beryllium cylinders were made with MORSAT. These objects were also shown to survive reentry.