Predicting the probability that earth-orbiting spacecraft will collide with man-made objects in space

A probabilistic approach to the problem of collisions is made possible by basing a model of the relevant characteristics of the total population on the known properties of a fraction of the total. A method of determining collision probability for objects in any two different but potentially intersecting orbits is derived. Collision probabilities for earth-orbital missions are investigated parametrically as a function of orbital characteristics and a hypothetical projection of the results to future orbital missions is discussed.