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The use of subjective expert opinions in cost optimum design of aerospace structuresThe results of two questionnaires sent to engineering experts are statistically analyzed and compared with objective data from Saturn V design and testing. Engineers were asked how likely it was for structural failure to occur at load increments above and below analysts' stress limit predictions. They were requested to estimate the relative probabilities of different failure causes, and of failure at each load increment given a specific cause. Three mathematical models are constructed based on the experts' assessment of causes. The experts' overall assessment of prediction strength fits the Saturn V data better than the models do, but a model test option (T-3) based on the overall assessment gives more design change likelihood to overstrength structures than does an older standard test option. T-3 compares unfavorably with the standard option in a cost optimum structural design problem. The report reflects a need for subjective data when objective data are unavailable.
Document ID
19750034265
Acquisition Source
Legacy CDMS
Document Type
Conference Paper
Authors
Thomas, J. M.
(NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Huntsville, Ala., United States)
Hanagud, S.
(Georgia Institute of Technology Atlanta, Ga., United States)
Date Acquired
August 8, 2013
Publication Date
January 1, 1975
Subject Category
Statistics And Probability
Report/Patent Number
AIAA PAPER 75-139
Meeting Information
Meeting: American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Aerospace Sciences Meeting
Location: Pasadena, CA
Start Date: January 20, 1975
End Date: January 22, 1975
Sponsors: American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics
Accession Number
75A18337
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NGR-11-002-169
CONTRACT_GRANT: NAS8-30617
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other

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