Earth reencounter probabilities for aborted space disposal of hazardous nuclear wasteA quantitative assessment is made of the long-term risk of earth reencounter and reentry associated with aborted disposal of hazardous material in the space environment. Numerical results are presented for 10 candidate disposal options covering a broad spectrum of disposal destinations and deployment propulsion systems. Based on representative models of system failure, the probability that a single payload will return and collide with earth within a period of 250,000 years is found to lie in the range .0002-.006. Proportionately smaller risk attaches to shorter time intervals. Risk-critical factors related to trajectory geometry and system reliability are identified as possible mechanisms of hazard reduction.
Document ID
19780048012
Acquisition Source
Legacy CDMS
Document Type
Conference Paper
Authors
Friedlander, A. L. (Science Applications, Inc. Schaumburg, IL, United States)
Feingold, H. (Science Applications, Inc. Schaumburg, Ill., United States)