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Uncertainty propagation in a stratospheric model. I - Development of a concise stratospheric model. II - Monte Carlo analysis of imprecisions due to reaction ratesThe paper discusses the development of a concise stratospheric model which uses iteration to obtain coupling between interacting species. The one-dimensional, steady-state, diurnally-averaged model generates diffusion equations with appropriate sources and sinks for species odd oxygen, H2O, H2, CO, N2O, odd nitrogen, CH4, CH3Cl, CCl4, CF2Cl2, CFCl3, and odd chlorine. The model evaluates steady-state perturbations caused by injections of chlorine and NO(x) and may be used to predict ozone depletion. The model is used in a Monte Carlo study of the propagation of reaction-rate imprecisions by calculating an ozone perturbation caused by the addition of chlorine. Since the model is sensitive to only 10 of the more than 50 reaction rates considered, only about 1000 Monte Carlo cases are required to span the space of possible results.
Document ID
19780057538
Acquisition Source
Legacy CDMS
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
Authors
Rundel, R. D.
(NASA Johnson Space Center Houston, Tex., United States)
Butler, D. M.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Stolarski, R. S.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Laboratory for Planetary Atmospheres, Greenbelt, Md., United States)
Date Acquired
August 9, 2013
Publication Date
June 20, 1978
Publication Information
Publication: Journal of Geophysical Research
Volume: 83
Subject Category
Environment Pollution
Accession Number
78A41447
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other

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