Performance and economic risk evaluation of dispersed solar thermal power systems by Monte Carlo simulation

A preliminary comparative evaluation of dispersed solar thermal power plants utilizing advanced technologies available in 1985-2000 time frame is under way at JPL. The solar power plants of 50 KWe to 10 MWe size are equipped with two axis tracking parabolic dish concentrator systems operating at temperatures in excess of 1000 F. The energy conversion schemes under consideration include advanced steam, open and closed cycle gas turbines, stirling, and combined cycle. The energy storage systems include advanced batteries, liquid metal, and chemical. This paper outlines a simple methodology for a probabilistic assessment of such systems. Sources of uncertainty in the development of advanced systems are identified, and a computer Monte Carlo simulation is exercised to permit an analysis of the tradeoffs of the risk of failure versus the potential for large gains. Frequency distribution of energy cost for several alternatives are presented.