Vehicle expectations in air transportation for the year 2000

This paper is intended to provide an overview of the air transportation system for the year 2000 in terms of vehicle expectations. Emphasis is placed on civil air transportation with the time period approached from the standpoint of evolutionary changes for the near term and also with the assumption of more revolutionary changes for the far term. The view along the evolutionary path begins with a historical review of airline market growth and the impact that technologies have had on airplane designs. Projections of the life expectancy of existing, derivative, and new airplanes are examined in terms of their productivity and fuel efficiency in view of the present and projected fuel usage and availability. The factors influencing airline growth are outlined and some views on whether another new generation of subsonic airplanes are in the offing are given along with an assessment of the economic viability of an advanced commercial supersonic transport in terms of its higher speed, higher productivity, and higher fuel usage. With regard to revolutionary changes, major technology breakthroughs are assumed to occur at a specified date. As an example, the impact of a dramatic reduction in skin friction drag is examined in terms of its effect on the airplane configuration, its propulsion systems, it projected fuel usage, and the air transportation system in which it must operate.