Aircraft NO/x/ emissions and stratospheric ozone reductions - Another look

New estimates for stratospheric ozone perturbations attributable to supersonic transport (SST) emissions are presented. First, a review is given of recent data pointing to lower OH concentrations below 30 km, as compared to the values predicted by photochemical models. The evidence for lower OH comes from a wide range of laboratory and atmospheric studies. The sensitivity of theoretical estimates of ozone change to OH abundances, and the coupling mechanisms between the O(x)-NO(x)-HO(x)-Cl(x) families which are responsible for the sensitivity, are discussed. Updated calculations for SST-induced ozone alterations are compared with older predictions. For example, assuming continuous aircraft injection of NO2 at 20 km at a rate of 1 x 10 to the 9th kg per year (globally), a 4% ozone decrease, is now calculated where earlier a 3% ozone increase was found. This large variance from previous forecasts suggests that new assessments of certain other polluting agents, particularly nitrogen fertilizers, are needed.