The demography of extraterrestrial civilizations

Studies carried out within the last ten years on the nature and distribution of extraterrestrial intelligent life are reviewed. Arguments for the absence of intelligent life in the Galaxy based on the assumption that at least some of these would have engaged in colonization and for the presence of colonies of extraterrestrials in some undiscovered location in the solar system are presented, and it is noted that both these views rest on the notion that interstellar travel can be achieved at high velocities in very large vehicles, which has been questioned. Alternative suggestions concerning interstellar exploration by automated probes and the possible extended time scale and motivation for galactic colonization are pointed out. Attention is then given to arguments for the extreme smallness of one of the factors in the Drake equation used to estimate the number of communicative extraterrestrial civilizations in the Galaxy, including the frequency of single stars, the likelihood that planets with the correct initial composition and conditions for life are at the proper distance from their stars, the probability of the formation of DNA and the origin of life, and the time for the evolution of intelligence. It is concluded that it seems likely that other civilizations exist in the Galaxy, although the number and distribution of such civilizations may only be determined by the detection of one or more examples.