Comet Tempel-Tuttle and the Leonid meteors

The distribution of dust surrounding periodic comet Tempel-Tuttle has been mapped by analyzing the associated Leonid meteor shower data over the 902-1969 interval. The majority of dust ejected from the parent comet evolves to a position lagging the comet and outside the comet's orbit. Hence, it appears that radiation pressure and planetary perturbations, rather than ejection processes, control the dynamic evolution of the Leonid particles. Significant Leonid meteor showers are possible roughly 2500 days before or after the parent comet reaches perihelion, but only if the comet passes closer than 0.025 AU inside or 0.010 AU outside the earth's orbit. Although the conditions in 1998-1999 are optimum for a significant Leonid meteor shower, the event is not certain because the dust particle distribution near the comet is far from uniform. The orbit of comet Tempel-Tuttle has been redetermined for the 1366-1966 observed interval.