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Dynamical predictability of monthly meansThe concept of predictability which is conditioned by synoptic-scale disturbance instabilities is extended to that of time averages, which are determined by low-frequency planetary wave predictability, in an attempt to determine the theoretical upper limit of dynamical predictability of monthly means for prescribed, nonfluctuating external forcings. Sixty-day integrations of a global general circulation model with nine different initial conditions but identical boundary conditions of sea surface temperatures, snow, sea ice and soil moisture are carried out, where the rms vector wind error between the observed initial conditions is greater than 15 m/sec. It is found that while the variances among the first 30-day means, predicted from mostly different initial conditions, are significantly different from the variances due to random perturbations in the initial conditions, variances for days 31-60 are not so distinguishable. These results suggest that the evolution of long waves remains predictable for between one month and 45 days.
Document ID
19820041396
Acquisition Source
Legacy CDMS
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
Authors
Shukla, J.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences, Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Date Acquired
August 10, 2013
Publication Date
December 1, 1981
Publication Information
Publication: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
Volume: 38
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Accession Number
82A24931
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other

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