Aspects of clear air turbulence severity forecasting and detection

Factors influencing the accuracy of the forecasts of incidences of clear air turbulence (CAT) are discussed, along with techniques for improved verification. Descriptive ranking terms for the intensity of CAT events, ranging from light to extreme, are developed, and meteorological parameters used for predictions are reviewed, including jetstream core location, vertical and horizontal wind shears, stable layers, tropopause height, trough speed, 500-mb vorticity, surface fronts, pressure centers and cyclogenesis, and wind speeds near mountain ridges. Methods of remote detection of CAT, particularly by using radiometry sensitive to the IR water vapor band, are noted to have had some success in detecting actual CAT events and decreasing false alarms. Statistical aspects of CAT encounter severity are discussed, including the establishment of confidence intervals for thresholds of detection of CATs of varying intensities.