Transitions and transversions in evolutionary descent - An approach to understanding

A quantitative theoretical groundwork is presented for determining the proportions of the possible types of base substitutions observed between 12 genes sharing a common ancestor and isolated from extant species. Three methods (direct count, regression, and informational entropy maximization) are described by which conditional base substitution probabilities that determine evolutionary descent can be estimated from experimental data. These methods are utilized to study the ratio of transversions to transitions during gene divergence. The limiting ratio is directly calculated from a knowledge of the 12 conditional probabilities for each type of base substitution and from a knowledge of the equilibrium base composition of the DNAs compared. An expression is developed for this calculation. It is concluded that multiple substitutions per se do not lead to a decrease in transition differences with increasing evolutionary divergence.