Observations on the propagation, growth, and predictability of Gulf Stream meanders

During a three-year period, Gulf Stream positions determined by satellite infrared imagery on a grid northeast of Cape Hatteras have been correlated against 'inlet' path parameters (displacement from the mean position, angle, and curvature) monitored by an array of inverted echo sounders. By cross-spectral calculations between these measurements, the downstream coherences, phase speeds, and spatial growth rates were determined. The downstream path predictability from these inlet parameters was tested in a multiple input linear response model. The most energetic meanders, with periods of 33-50 days, remained highly coherent for 300 km downstream, roughly the dominant wavelength, with marginal coherence again at 500-575 km. Phase speeds are frequency dependent and decrease with distance downstream. For the 50- (33) day meanders, phase speeds decreased from 10 (17) km/d at the inlet to 6 (8) km/d at a distance downstream of about 550 km. The average growth rate (spatial e-folding wave number) over the entire region is 1.3 x 10 to the -3rd per km. Within 300 km of the inlet, the multiple coherence accounts for 55-65 percent of the total path-displacement variance, with displacement and angle being the best individual predictors in the first and last halves of this region, respectively.