A new model of resonance in the winter stratosphere

It is generally accepted that the planetary waves observed in the winter stratosphere are primarily a response to dynamical forcing from the troposphere. Nevertheless, the mechanism by which wave amplitudes sometimes become larger remains uncertain. It is possible that anomalously large waves in the stratosphere might simply be the result of anomalously large tropospheric forcing. However, it has also been suggested that they are a response to a stratospheric-tropospheric cavity being in a near-resonant configuration. It has been suggested that nonlinear self-tuning effects could play an important role in the behavior of such a cavity. Self-tuning may occur when a system starts to one side of resonance, such that the mean-state change induced by growing waves brings the system closer to resonance. A new model of the stratospheric cavity is introduced and is then used to re-examine the possibility of wave growth in the real atmosphere and in atmospheric models due to self-tuning effects. The new model is based on the picture of the winter-time stratosphere which has been revealed by the observations of Ertel's potential vorticity, Q. Isentropic maps of Q show two rather distinct regions, the first containing the circumpolar vortex, where gradients of Q are large and Rossby waves may propagate easily. Surrounding this is a second, low-latitude region where the gradients are generally weak and where, because the Eulerian-mean flow is comparable with their phase speed, Rossby waves must be continually breaking. As the waves are observed to grow the relative sizes of these two regions change in time. This leads to the interesting possibility that self-tuning, mainly due to irreversible changes in the size of the polar vortex, is taking place.