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Sensitivity of an atmospheric photochemistry model to chlorine perturbations including consideration of uncertainty propagationModels of stratospheric photochemistry are generally tested by comparing their predictions for the composition of the present atmosphere with measurements of species concentrations. These models are then used to make predictions of the atmospheric sensitivity to perturbations. Here the problem of the sensitivity of such a model to chlorine perturbations ranging from the present influx of chlorine-containing compounds to several times that influx is addressed. The effects of uncertainties in input parameters, including reaction rate coefficients, cross sections, solar fluxes, and boundary conditions, are evaluated using a Monte Carlo method in which the values of the input parameters are randomly selected. The results are probability distributions for present atmosheric concentrations and for calculated perturbations due to chlorine from fluorocarbons. For more than 300 Monte Carlo runs the calculated ozone perturbation for continued emission of fluorocarbons at today's rates had a mean value of -6.2 percent, with a 1-sigma width of 5.5 percent. Using the same runs but only allowing the cases in which the calculated present atmosphere values of NO, NO2, and ClO at 25 km altitude fell within the range of measurements yielded a mean ozone depletion of -3 percent, with a 1-sigma deviation of 2.2 percent. The model showed a nonlinear behavior as a function of added fluorocarbons. The mean of the Monte Carlo runs was less nonlinear than the model run using mean value of the input parameters.
Document ID
19860061743
Acquisition Source
Legacy CDMS
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
Authors
Stolarski, R. S.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Douglass, A. R.
(Applied Research Corp. Landover, MD, United States)
Date Acquired
August 12, 2013
Publication Date
June 20, 1986
Publication Information
Publication: Journal of Geophysical Research
Volume: 91
ISSN: 0148-0227
Subject Category
Geophysics
Accession Number
86A46481
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other

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