Physical processes in prediction of explosive maritime cyclogenesis

Explosive maritime cyclogenetic events are usually aligned with the warm currents off the east coasts of Japan and the U.S. One such event occurred during FGGE in an area which featured good instrumented ship and aircraft coverage. The UCLA 4th order GMC was employed to generate predictions of the event for comparisons with the real-world data. FGGE III-b data were used to initialize the model calculations. Attention was directed to the physical processes causing the onset of the cyclogenesis, particularly the heat budgets of the fluxes involved. The diabatic heating was observed to be equivalent to the horizontal temperature advection. The main source of energy around the cyclone center was identified as the conversion of energy from static energy to kinetic energy. Further analyses of similar events are required if the present results are to be validated.