Forecasting sea breeze thunderstorms at the Kennedy Space Center using the Prognostic Three-Dimensional Mesoscale Model (P 3DM)

A Prognostic Three-Dimensional Model (P3DM) to produce 1- to 12-hr predictions of sea breeze convective (SBC) storms at KSC is described. The P3DM was developed to account for a scale of about 10 km, interactions between surface heat and moisture fluxes, boundary layer convergence, the movement of moisture into cloud formation zones, and alterations in the convective potential in the lower levels of the atmosphere during the diurnal cycle. Initialized with wind, temperature, specific humidity and local water temperature data, the model allows for the distortion of the boundary layer moisture and thermal fields by sea breeze conditions. The results of three simulations of events leading to the onset of SBC storms are presented to demonstrate the model's capabilities, and techniques which may enhance the accuracy of the predictions are discussed.