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The use of atmospheric measurements to constrain model predictions of ozone change from chlorine perturbationsAtmospheric photochemistry models have been used to predict the sensitivity of the ozone layer to various perturbations. These same models also predict concentrations of chemical species in the present day atmosphere which can be compared to observations. Model results for both present day values and sensitivity to perturbation depend upon input data for reaction rates, photodissociation rates, and boundary conditions. A method of combining the results of a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis with the existing set of present atmospheric species measurements is developed. The method is used to examine the range of values for the sensitivity of ozone to chlorine perturbations that is possible within the currently accepted ranges for input data. It is found that model runs which predict ozone column losses much greater than 10 percent as a result of present fluorocarbon fluxes produce concentrations and column amounts in the present atmosphere which are inconsistent with the measurements for ClO, HCl, NO, NO2, and HNO3.
Document ID
19870059208
Acquisition Source
Legacy CDMS
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
Authors
Douglass, Anne R.
(Applied Research Corp. Landover, MD, United States)
Stolarski, Richard S.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Date Acquired
August 13, 2013
Publication Date
June 20, 1987
Publication Information
Publication: Journal of Geophysical Research
Volume: 92
ISSN: 0148-0227
Subject Category
Geophysics
Accession Number
87A46482
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other

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