Bifurcation properties of a stratospheric vacillation model

Nonlinear properties of the stratospheric vacillation model of Holton and Mass (1976) are studied numerically using bifurcation theory. Severe truncation and vertical differencing are used to obtain 81 nonlinear ordinary differential equations with time-dependent variables. Three branches of the steady solutions are determined using Powell's hybrid method and the pseudoarclength continuation method, and a multiplicity of stable steady-state solutions with different vertical structures are found to exist in some range of the bifurcation parameter. Periodic solutions are found which branch off from a steady solution by a Hopf bifurcation. It is suggested that the interannual variability of the stratospheric circulation in the middle and high latitudes during winter may be explained by the multiplicity of steady and periodic stable solutions.