Eruptions of Pavlof Volcano and their possible modulation by ocean load and tectonic stresses

Data pertaining to the basic features (such as the volume of erupted materials and the rate of mass ejection) of the eruptions of the Pavlof Volcano, Alaska, and the accompanying seismicity were related to other geophysical data, including atmospheric pressure, earth and ocean-load tides, long-period sea level, and ground tilt. A significant correlation was found between the eruptions of the volcano and yearly nontidal variations in sea level, that possibly resulted from ocean loading; volume changes beneath the volcano due to ocean loading were calculated to be from 0.02 to 2 times eruption volumes. It is suggested that the volcano acts as a long-period volume strain meter, with lava being preferentially erupted when strain beneath the volcano is compressive. No eruptions occurred during the period of 1978-1980, when tilt, seismic data, and sea level data indicated that a deep aseismic slip may have occurred. Models of this aseismic event predict a volume increase beneath the volcano that might have compensated strain from magma injection.