Providing operational guidance for the development of sea breeze thunderstorms at the Kennedy Space Center - An experiment using a mesoscale numerical model

The effectiveness of a mesoscale numerical model to provide improved local forecast guidance is evaluated with respect to sea breeze convection storms at the Kennedy Space Center. The model and operational forecast guidance production are described. A case study is presented for sea breeze convection storms and lightning events on July 1, 1986. It is found that the mesoscale numerical model outperforms purely subjective predictions of sea breeze convection. The range of applications for the model are considered.