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Tropical forecasting - Predictability perspectiveResults are presented of classical predictability studies and forecast experiments with observed initial conditions to show the nature of initial error growth and final error equilibration for the tropics and midlatitudes, separately. It is found that the theoretical upper limit of tropical circulation predictability is far less than for midlatitudes. The error growth for a complete general circulation model is compared to a dry version of the same model in which there is no prognostic equation for moisture, and diabatic heat sources are prescribed. It is found that the growth rate of synoptic-scale errors for the dry model is significantly smaller than for the moist model, suggesting that the interactions between dynamics and moist processes are among the important causes of atmospheric flow predictability degradation. Results are then presented of numerical experiments showing that correct specification of the slowly varying boundary condition of SST produces significant improvement in the prediction of time-averaged circulation and rainfall over the tropics.
Document ID
19900027595
Acquisition Source
Legacy CDMS
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
Authors
Shukla, J.
(Maryland, University Baltimore, United States)
Date Acquired
August 14, 2013
Publication Date
September 1, 1989
Publication Information
Publication: Australian Meteorological Magazine
Volume: 37
ISSN: 0004-9743
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Accession Number
90A14650
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NSF ATM-87-13567
CONTRACT_GRANT: NAGW-558
CONTRACT_GRANT: NAGW-557
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other

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