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Collision probability at low altitudes resulting from elliptical orbitsThe probability of collision between a spacecraft and another object is calculated for various altitude and orbit conditions, and factors affecting the probability are discussed. It is shown that a collision can only occur when the spacecraft is located at an altitude which is between the perigee and apogee altitudes of the object and that the probability per unit time is largest when the orbit of the object is nearly circular. However, at low altitudes, the atmospheric drag causes changes with time of the perigee and the apogee, such that circular orbits have a much shorter lifetime than many of the elliptical orbits. Thus, when the collision probability is integrated over the lifetime of the orbiting object, some elliptical orbits are found to have much higher total collision probability than circular orbits. Rocket bodies used to boost payloads from low earth orbit to geosynchronous orbit are an example of objects in these elliptical orbits.
Document ID
19900031696
Acquisition Source
Legacy CDMS
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
Authors
Kessler, Donald J.
(NASA Johnson Space Center Houston, TX, United States)
Date Acquired
August 14, 2013
Publication Date
January 1, 1990
Publication Information
Publication: Advances in Space Research
Volume: 10
Issue: 3-4,
ISSN: 0273-1177
Subject Category
Astronautics (General)
Accession Number
90A18751
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other

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