Probabilistic reasoning for intelligent wind shear avoidanceA computerized intelligent cockpit aid can increase flight-crew awareness of wind shear, improving avoidance decisions. The FAA Windshear Training Aid (WTA) provides guidelines for assessing the risk of wind shear encounter from meteorological evidence. Use of these guidelines in the cockpit is complicated by uncertainty surrounding meteorological knowledge of wind shear. Bayesian network representation is discussed as a means of modeling this uncertain knowledge in a computer. A probabilistic model of the WTA guidelines using Bayesian network representation is presented. This model combines evidence from sources of varying reliability and incorporates results from meteorological studies of wind shear. The probabilistic model can provide flight crews with meaningful estimates of risk to aid their decisions, using evidence from a variety of sources and a base of meteorological knowledge.
Document ID
19900060635
Acquisition Source
Legacy CDMS
Document Type
Conference Paper
Authors
Stratton, D. Alexander (Princeton Univ. NJ, United States)
Stengel, Robert F. (Princeton University NJ, United States)
Date Acquired
August 14, 2013
Publication Date
January 1, 1990
Subject Category
Systems Analysis
Report/Patent Number
AIAA PAPER 90-3437
Meeting Information
Meeting: AIAA Guidance, Navigation and Control Conference