Supercomputing systems - A projection to 2000

Advances in computer architecture, computer science, computational methods, and constituent technologies are expected to lead to significant advances in the performance of scientific supercomputing system capabilities over the next decade. By the year 2000, single 1-in-sq dies are projected to incorporate four processors, each of which would be operating faster than 750 million instructions per second (MIPS) for a total on-chip processing performance in excess of 2000 MIPS. Scalable parallel processors can be expected to contain thousands of such multiple processor chips. In general, semiconductor performance advances appear to change about one order of magnitude every five years. Rotating magnetic memory and communications technology are not advancing as rapidly, with the result that the allocation of functions within the system configurations fo future supercomputer systems will require important changes. Availability of massively parallel heterogeneous processing capabilities should be a catalyst leading to new approaches for applications.