Is bigger always better? An economic study of U.S. ETO vehicle architectures

This analysis, performed as part of NASA's Space Transportation Infrastructure Study, compares the cost efficiency of two candidate launch vehicle families, used in conjunction with existing expendable launch vehicles and the Shuttle, to accomplish the nation's future space missions through 2030. Missions analyzed include those identified in NASA's Civil Needs Data Base (CNDB) and Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) Option E program, as well as estimates of commercial and U.S. Department of Defense flights. A family of Shuttle-derived In-line vehicles is compared against a family designed around a vehicle optimized for large (250t) payloads. The analysis is performed within the context of an entire space transportation architecture. The goal is to determine which architecture best captures the required missions most cost-effectively. Results indicate that, for the particular mission model analyzed, neither option is clearly superior across the entire payload range. The Shuttle-derived family displays a better evolutionary path for supporting the total mission model (CNDB plus SEI missions). It also reduces earth-to-orbit (ETO) peak funding by 20 percent. The architecture incorporating the Heavy Lift ETO family minimizes SEI program cost and on-orbit operations but is subject to greater schedule risk because of the need for concurrent ETO core and engine development.