Debris hazard for the Earth Observing System

The scientific mission of the Earth Observing System (EOS) is modeled to analyze the potential hazard of space debris and its impact on the effectiveness of the program. Specific attention is given to the hazard posed by untrackable debris and the velocities and impact rates of such debris. The NASA Debris Flux Model (DFM) is utilized, and the results are compared to those of the Frag model which predicts the background environment from known parameters and the Screen model for estimating collision probabilities. The probability of damaging impacts is shown to be significant and to increase over time; an EOS spacecraft has a 10 percent chance of being struck by a 1-cm object traveling at 14 km/s. The present analyses demonstrate the need to design the EOS spacecraft for a LEO environment in which collisions with debris are very likely.