Oblique convergence and deformation along the Kuril and Japan trenches

The hypothesis that present-day deformation within the southern Kuril forearc is driven by oblique subduction of the Pacific plate is tested using 397 horizontal slip directions derived from shallow-thrust earthquakes from the Kuril and Japan trenches for the period 1963-1991. A simple two-plate model fits the 397 slip vectors significantly worse than a model that permits strike-slip motion of the southern Kuril forearc relative to the overlying plate. Weighted, mean slip directions along the southern Kuril trench are systematically rotated toward the direction orthogonal to the trench, which implies that the net convergence is partitioned into less oblique subduction and trench-parallel displacement of the southern Kuril forearc. The angular discrepancy between the observed slip direction and the direction predicted by the NUVEL-1 Pacific-North America Euler vector implies that the southern Kuril forearc translates 6-11 mm/yr to the southwest relative to the overlying North American plate. These results are consistent with geologically, geodetically, and seismologically observed convergence at the leading edge of the forearc sliver in southern Kokkaido and with previously inferred extension at the trailing edge of the sliver, which is located at the Bussol Strait at 46 deg N.