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Adaptive filtering and prediction of the Southern Oscillation indexSingular spectrum analysis (SSA), a variant of principal component analysis, is applied to a time series of the Southern Oscillation index (SOI). The analysis filters out variability unrelated to the Southern Oscillation and separates the high-frequency, 2- to 3-year variability, including the quasi-biennial oscillation, from the lower-frequency 4- to 6-year El Nino cycle. The maximum entropy method (MEM) is applied to forecasting the prefiltered SOI. Prediction based on MEM-associated autoregresive models has useful skill for 30-36 months. A 1993-1994 La Nina event is predicted based on data through February 1992.
Document ID
19930039213
Acquisition Source
Legacy CDMS
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
Authors
Keppenne, Christian L.
(California Univ. Los Angeles; JPL, Pasadena, CA, United States)
Ghil, Michael
(California Univ. Los Angeles, United States)
Date Acquired
August 16, 2013
Publication Date
December 20, 1992
Publication Information
Publication: Journal of Geophysical Research
Volume: 97
Issue: D18
ISSN: 0148-0227
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Accession Number
93A23210
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other

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