Quasi-periodic climate change on Mars

The paper examines evidence that the Martian climate undergoes quasi-periodic variations, including the polar layered terrain, differences between the residual polar caps, and the current net southward flow of H2O. The driving functions for these variations are oscillations in the elements of the Martian orbit coupled with precession of the Martian spin axis. These 'astronomic variations' control the distribution of the insolation, which in turn influences the partition of volatiles between atmospheric and surface reservoirs. The major effects anticipated at low obliquity are growth of the polar caps, substantial decrease in surface pressure, cessation of duststorms, release of CO2 from the regolith, and poleward migration of H2O ground ice. At high obliquity, the mass of the perennial polar caps decreases and permanent CO2 frost disappears, CO2 desorbs from the regolith at high latitudes, the surface pressure may increase to several times its current value, and the atmospheric dust load increases.