On the structure of the Southern Oscillation

A realistic oceanic general circulation model is forced with winds observed over the tropical Pacific between 1967 and 1979. The structure of the simulated Southern Oscillation is strikingly different in the western and eastern sides of the basin, because the principal interannual zonal-wind fluctuations are confined to the west and are in the form of an equatorial jet. This causes thermocline displacements to have maxima off the equator in the west (where the curl of the wind is large) but on the equator in the east. Zonal phase propagation, both on and off the equator, is at different speeds in the west and east. The phase pattern is complex, and there is, on interannual time scale, no explicit evidence of individual equatorial waves. These results lead to a modification of the 'delayed oscillator' mechanism originally proposed by Schopf and Suarez to explain a continual Southern Oscillation. The results also permit an evaluation of the various coupled ocean-atmosphere models that simulate the Southern Oscillation and indicate which measurements are necessary to determine which models are most relevant to reality.