Interplanetary proton fluence model - JPL 1991

We describe an updated predictive engineering model for the interplanetary fluence of protons with energies respectively greater than 1, 4, 10, 30, and 60 MeV. This has been the first opportunity to derive a model from a data set that has been collected in space over a long enough period of time to produce a valid sample of solar proton events. The model provides a quantitative basis for estimating the exposures to solar protons of spacecraft during missions of varying length and of surfaces and atmospheres of solar system objects. The data sets contain several major proton events comparable to the 1972 event. For the cases of the over 10 and over 30 MeV particles, the fluences are somewhat lower than in our earlier model No over 1, over 4, and over 60 MeV proton fluence models have been published in the literature previously. We present our results in a convenient graphical form which may be used to calculate the 1 AU fluence expected at a given confidence level as a function of the length of the exposure. A method of extending this estimate to other heliocentric distances is described.