A Monte Carlo study of photochemical model uncertainties affecting the calculation of subsonic perturbations in the upper troposphere

Monte Carlo methods are frequently applied to the evaluation of uncertainties in models with multiple inputs that themselves have associated imprecisions. In the case of photochemical models used to evaluate changes in O3 or OH, inputs analyzed include rate coefficients measured in the laboratory, and chemical and physical constituents measured in the atmosphere. The Monte Carlo method was used with the 1-dimensional GSFC tropospheric photochemical model to examine uncertainty propagation to calculation of NO(x) and the major oxidants (O3, OH) in the upper troposphere. In all cases chemical kinetics inputs are varied and the NO(x) perturbation of a subsonic fleet is simulated. A series of model runs is used to explore sensitivities of model-computed parameters to other parameters: heterogeneous processes, the uncertainty in upper tropospheric H2O vapor measurements, aircraft emissions at different latitudes.