Non-GEO mobile satellite systems: A risk assessment

Since 1991, The MITRE Corporation has performed several independent evaluations of proposed mobile satellite service (MSS) systems that would operate from low Earth orbit (LEO) or medium Earth orbit (MEO), also known as intermediate circular orbit (ICO). This paper introduces a top level Risk Taxonomy tailored to summarize the technical and programmatic risks that MITRE has identified. In general, as risks are identified and addressed, a system's technical characteristics, cost and schedule are affected. This paper traces changes in three key parameters - satellite launch mass, system cost, and system schedule - for each of the five original non-GEO MSS systems for which license applications were made to the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) from November 1990 until June 1991. Finally, specific risk areas are identified using the Risk Taxonomy as a framework for discussion.