Kalman Filtering USNO's GPS Observations for Improved Time Transfer Predictions

The Global Positioning System (GPS) Master Control Station (MCS) performs the Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) time transfer mission by uploading and broadcasting predictions of the GPS-UTC offset in subframe 4 of the GS navigation message. These predictions are based on only two successive daily data points obtained from the US Naval Observatory (USNO). USNO produces these daily smoothed data points by performing a least-squares fit on roughly 38 hours worth of data from roughly 160 successive 13-minute tracks of GPS satellites. Though sufficient for helping to maintain a time transfer error specification of 28 ns (1 Sigma), the MCS's prediction algorithm does not make the best use of the available data from from USNO, and produces data that can degrade quickly over extended prediction spans. This paper investigates how, by applying Kalman filtering to the same available tracking data, the MCS could improve its estimate of GPS-UTC, and in particular, the GPS-UTC A(sub 1) term. By refining the A(sub 1) (frequency) estimate for GPS-UTC predictions, error in GPS time transfer could drop significantly. Additional, the risk of future spikes in GPS's time transfer error could similarly be minimized, by employing robust Kalman filtering for GPS-UTC predictions.