Prediction and measurement of direct-normal solar irradiance: A closure experiment

Direct-Normal Solar Irradiance (DNSI), the total energy in the solar spectrum incident on a plane perpendicular to the Sun's direction on a unit area at the earth's surface in unit time, depends only on the atmospheric extinction of sunlight without regard to the details of extinction-whether absorption or scattering. Here the authors describe a set of closure experiments performed in north-central Oklahoma, wherein measured atmospheric composition is input to a radiative transfer model, MODTRAN-3, to predict DNSI, which is then compared to measured values. Thirty six independent comparisons are presented; the agreement between predicted and measured values falls within the combined uncertainties in the prediction (2%) and measurement (0.2%) albeit with a slight bias ((approximately) 1% overprediction) that is independent of the solar zenith angle. Thus these results establish the adequacy of current knowledge of the solar spectrum and atmospheric extinction as embodied in MODTRAN-3 for use in climate models. An important consequence is the overwhelming likelihood that the atmospheric clear-sky absorption is accurately described to within comparable uncertainties.