NASA Logo

NTRS

NTRS - NASA Technical Reports Server

Back to Results
GCM Hindcasts for SST Forced Climate Variability over Agriculturally Intensive RegionsThe ability to forecast seasonal climate is of great practical interest. One of the most obvious benefits would be agriculture, for which various preparations (planting, machinery, irrigation, manpower) would be enabled. The expectation of being able to make such forecasts far enough in advance (on the order of 9 months) hinges on components of the system with the longest persistence or predictability. The mixed results of El Nino forecasts has raised the hope that tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) fall into this category. For agriculturally-relevant forecasts to be made, and utilized, requires several conditions. The SST in the regions that affect agricultural areas must be forecast successfully, many months in advance. The climate response to such sea surface temperatures must then be ascertained, either through the use of historical empirical studies or models (e.g., GCMS). For practical applications, the agricultural production must be strongly influenced by climate, and farmers on either the local level or through commercial concerns must be able to adjust to using such forecasts. In a continuing series of papers, we will explore each of these components. This article concerns the question of utilizing SST to forecast the climate in several regions of agricultural production. We optimize the possibility of doing so successfully by using observed SST in a hindcast mode (i.e., a perfect forecast), and we also use the globally observed values (rather than just those from the tropical Pacific, for which predictability has been shown). This then is the ideal situation; in subsequent papers we will explore degrading the results by using only tropical Pacific SSTs, and then using only
Document ID
19990070929
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
Authors
Druyan, Leonard M.
(NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY United States)
Shah, Kathryn P.
(NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY United States)
Chandler, Mark A.
(NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY United States)
Rind, David
(NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY United States)
Date Acquired
August 19, 2013
Publication Date
November 1, 1998
Subject Category
Environment Pollution
Report/Patent Number
GCN-99-46
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NSF ATM-97-25142
CONTRACT_GRANT: NCC5-117
CONTRACT_GRANT: NSF ATM-96-28843
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Work of the US Gov. Public Use Permitted.

Available Downloads

There are no available downloads for this record.
No Preview Available