On the Predictability of Substorms Following Sharp Northward Turnings of the IMF

It has been shown that there is an association between changes of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) that are expected to lead to a reduction in magnetospheric convection (northward turnings, reductions) and the onset of the expansion phase of substorms. This has been previously demonstrated by analyses of IMF data during time intervals associated with identified substorm onsets. Here we examine whether observations of northward turnings of the IMF can be used to predict the occurrence of substorms. We first identified sharp northward turnings that follow an interval of steady, southward IMF using measurements from the Wind spacecraft during the first 180 days of 1997. We also required that the northward turning be observed by either IMP-8 or GEOTAIL, in addition to Wind, and that one of the observing satellites be sufficiently close to the Earth-Sun line, or that the two observing satellites be sufficiently separated, that we are reasonably certain that the northward turning affected the magnetosphere. We also used the dual observations to estimate the arrival of the northward turning at the Earth. Using these criteria, we predicted 17 substorms. We then searched for the following signatures of substorm onset around the time of the predicted onset: auroral brightening followed by auroral bulge expansion observed by Polar UVI, geosynchronous particle injection, geosynchronous magnetic field dipolarization, and an appropriate magnetic disturbance at the surface of the Earth. Of the 17 predictions of substorms, 10 were successful in that a substorm onset was observed within 12 min of the predicted onset, 1 is indeterminate due to a lack of data at the Earth, 1 had unusual activity that we have not been able to identify, and 5 were unsuccessful. The failure of these last 5 predictions is explicable. Two of the northward turnings that failed to produce substorms were preceded by the lowest average of the set. The remaining 3 were the only cases in which the northward turning was accompanied by a simultaneous sharp increase. The increase would be expected to offset the decrease in convection that would otherwise be expected to be associated with a northward turning. These results indicate that it is an IMF change that leads to a reduction in convection, rather than just a northward turning or reduction that is associated with substorms, and that at least some substorms can be predicted by measurements of the IMF.