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Comparison of Model and Observed Regional Temperature Changes During the Past 40 YearsResults are presented for six simulations of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global atmosphere-ocean model for the years 1950 to 2099. There are two control simulations with constant 1950 atmospheric composition from different initial states, two GHG experiments with observed greenhouse gases up to 1990 and compounded .5% CO2 annual increases thereafter, and two GHG+SO4 experiments with the same varying greenhouse gases plus varying tropospheric sulfate aerosols. Surface air temperature trends in the two GHG experiments are compared between themselves and with the observed temperature record from 1960 and 1998. All comparisons show high positive spatial correlation in the northern hemisphere except in summer when the greenhouse signal is weakest. The GHG+SO4 experiments show weaker correlations. In the southern hemisphere, correlations are either weak or negative which in part are due to the model's unrealistic interannual variability of southern sea ice cover. The model results imply that temperature changes due to forcing by increased greenhouse gases have risen above the level of regional interannual temperature variability in the northern hemisphere over the past 40 years. This period is thus an important test of reliability of coupled climate models.
Document ID
19990080918
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
External Source(s)
Authors
Russell, Gary L.
(NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY United States)
Miller, James R.
(NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY United States)
Rind, David
(NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY United States)
Ruedy, Reto A.
(NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY United States)
Schmidt, Gavin A.
(NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY United States)
Sheth, Sukeshi
(NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY United States)
Date Acquired
August 19, 2013
Publication Date
June 30, 1999
Subject Category
Environment Pollution
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Work of the US Gov. Public Use Permitted.

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