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Publication Bias ( The "File-Drawer Problem") in Scientific InferencePublication bias arises whenever the probability that a study is published depends on the statistical significance of its results. This bias, often called the file-drawer effect since the unpublished results are imagined to be tucked away in researchers' file cabinets, is potentially a severe impediment to combining the statistical results of studies collected from the literature. With almost any reasonable quantitative model for publication bias, only a small number of studies lost in the file-drawer will produce a significant bias. This result contradicts the well known Fail Safe File Drawer (FSFD) method for setting limits on the potential harm of publication bias, widely used in social, medical and psychic research. This method incorrectly treats the file drawer as unbiased, and almost always miss-estimates the seriousness of publication bias. A large body of not only psychic research, but medical and social science studies, has mistakenly relied on this method to validate claimed discoveries. Statistical combination can be trusted only if it is known with certainty that all studies that have been carried out are included. Such certainty is virtually impossible to achieve in literature surveys.
Document ID
20000091011
Acquisition Source
Ames Research Center
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
Authors
Scargle, Jeffrey D.
(NASA Ames Research Center Moffett Field, CA United States)
DeVincenzi, Donald
Date Acquired
August 19, 2013
Publication Date
January 1, 1999
Subject Category
Documentation And Information Science
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other

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