Estimating The Rate of Technology Adoption for Cockpit Weather Information Systems

In February 1997, President Clinton announced a national goal to reduce the weather related fatal accident rate for aviation by 80% in ten years. To support that goal, NASA established an Aviation Weather Information Distribution and Presentation Project to develop technologies that will provide timely and intuitive information to pilots, dispatchers, and air traffic controllers. This information should enable the detection and avoidance of atmospheric hazards and support an improvement in the fatal accident rate related to weather. A critical issue in the success of NASA's weather information program is the rate at which the market place will adopt this new weather information technology. This paper examines that question by developing estimated adoption curves for weather information systems in five critical aviation segments: commercial, commuter, business, general aviation, and rotorcraft. The paper begins with development of general product descriptions. Using this data, key adopters are surveyed and estimates of adoption rates are obtained. These estimates are regressed to develop adoption curves and equations for weather related information systems. The paper demonstrates the use of adoption rate curves in product development and research planning to improve managerial decision processes and resource allocation.