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Prediction of Coronal Mass Ejections From Vector Magnetograms: Quantitative Measures as PredictorsWe derived two quantitative measures of an active region's global nonpotentiality from the region's vector magnetogram, 1) the net current (I(sub N)), and 2) the length of strong-shear, strong-field main neutral line (Lss), and used these two measures in a pilot study of the CME productivity of 4 active regions. We compared the global nonpotentiality measures to the active regions' CME productivity determined from GOES and Yohkoh/SXT observations. We found that two of the active regions were highly globally nonpotential and were CME productive, while the other two active regions had little global nonpotentiality and produced no CMEs. At the Fall 2000 AGU, we reported on an expanded study (12 active regions and 17 magnetograms) in which we evaluated four quantitative global measures of an active region's magnetic field and compared these measures with the CME productivity. The four global measures (all derived from MSFC vector magnetograms) included our two previous measures (I(sub N) and L(sub ss)) as well as two new ones, the total magnetic flux (PHI) (a measure of an active region's size), and the normalized twist (alpha (bar)= muIN/PHI). We found that the three quantitative measures of global nonpotentiality (I(sub N), L(sub ss), alpha (bar)) were all well correlated (greater than 99% confidence level) with an active region's CME productivity within plus or minus 2 days of the day of the magnetogram. We will now report on our findings of how good our quantitative measures are as predictors of active-region CME productivity, using only CMEs that occurred after the magnetogram. We report the preliminary skill test of these quantitative measures as predictors. We compare the CME prediction success of our quantitative measures to the CME prediction success based on an active region's past CME productivity. We examine the cases of the handful of false positive and false negatives to look for improvements to our predictors. This work is funded by NSF through the Space Weather Program and by NASA through the Solar Physics Supporting Research and Technology Program.
Document ID
20010039531
Acquisition Source
Marshall Space Flight Center
Document Type
Conference Paper
Authors
Falconer, D. A.
(Alabama Univ. Huntsville, AL United States)
Moore, R. L.
(NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Huntsville, AL United States)
Gary, G. A.
(NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Huntsville, AL United States)
Rose, M. Franklin
Date Acquired
August 20, 2013
Publication Date
January 1, 2001
Subject Category
Solar Physics
Meeting Information
Meeting: American Geophysical Union Spring 2001 Meeting
Location: Boston, MA
Country: United States
Start Date: May 29, 2001
Sponsors: American Geophysical Union
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Work of the US Gov. Public Use Permitted.

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