Protecting Venus from Asteroids, Comets, and Meteors

It is well accepted that the dense, thick atmosphere of Venus prevents most small cosmic bodies from reaching the surface and forming craters. We have examined this atmospheric intervention in detail, incorporating the lessons learned from the extensive modeling of impactor deceleration and flattening motivated by the SL-9 impacts with Jupiter. We employ a "pancake" model, which best matches detailed code simulations of atmospheric energy deposition, and Schmidt-Holsapple crater scaling modified for complex (flattened) craters. We adopt the distributions of Venus-crossing asteroids and comets determined by E.M. Shoemaker and co-workers, as well as generalizations of these distributions. Our nominal simulation of the venusian crater record is shown below, calibrated to the total number of venusian craters (940). As nearly all craters on Venus are well-preserved and relatively uniformly distributed, such simulations constrain the age of the surface. The fit is reasonable, with a nominal crater retention age of approx. 700 Ma. The fit at the large-crater end is improved if the number of large asteroids is increased, which Shoemaker argues is in fact more representative of the long-term (over several 100 Ma) average, and if Halley-family comets are included. The ages we obtain under a variety of modeling choices that produce good fits (including using Shoemaker's preferred crater scaling) are approx. 700-900 Ma, substantially greater than the most widely cited age estimate in the literature (-300 Ma). The key difference is that we find very large depletions in the production of 20-30-km craters (see figure) compared with previous estimates, the size range at which atmospheric effects are often calibrated or assumed nearly negligible. As venusian global resurfacing recedes deeper into history, the likelihood that Venus is resting between bouts of activity diminishes. Venus, like Mars, may instead be dying or dead.